On Thursday, March 10th, Todd Hirsch, literally blew into the Fairmont Palliser Hotel through high winds, to present at the monthly BOMA luncheon. His eighth time presenting to BOMA members and guests, Todd once again made provincial, national and global economics not only palatable, but entertaining as well.
This year’s presentation “What Are The Odds?” was based on Vegas odds, as he felt that Alberta’s current economic position is very different then what we experienced in 2009-2010, so at this rate, all we can do is make guesses on the potential events that may or may not unfold as a result.
Todd spoke of major topics such as oil production and prices, the international economy, Alberta labour, inter-provincial migration, and residential housing market and finally, the odds of an economic recovery and Alberta becoming more diverse as a result of our current situation.
Here is a recap of his predictions:
Odds that oil will return to a minimum of $80/barrel.
75:1 = not likely
Odds that oil will drop to $20/barrel in 2016.
20:1 = not too likely
Odds that oil will reach $50-$55/barrel by end of 2016
3:1 = very likely
Odds of China’s collapse
6:1 = same odds as a roll of the dice.
Odds of Bank of Canada raising interest rates in 2016
15:1 = not to likely
ALBERTA LABOUR MARKET
Odds that the Alberta Unemployment Rate hits 8%?
3:1 = very likely
(Considering the rate hit 7.9% the next day, he might be beat the house on this bet.)
Odds of net out migration to other provinces?
1:1 = 50/50 chance in the first half of 2016
ALBERTA RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET
Odds the residential housing market drops (downturn)
3:1 = very likely (about 5-10%)
Odds that the residential housing markets drops by more than 20%
7:1 = not likely
Odds of seeing a modest recovery in 2016?
1:1 = 50/50 chance that the worst will be over by Christmas 2016
Odds that Alberta will become more economically diverse in 2016?
0:1 = Almost certain (We will be more diverse either organically or by the attrition of the petroleum industry in Alberta)
You can follow Todd Hirsch the following ways:
The Owl: atb.com/economics
Submitted on behalf of the BOMA Communications Committee